Incumbent:
Jagmeet Singh (New Democratic | 2019)
Candidates:
Liberal: Wade Chang
Conservative: James Yan
New Democratic: Jagmeet Singh
People’s: Richard Farbridge
2021 Results:
New Democratic – 40 per cent
Liberal – 31 per cent
Conservative – 22 per cent
People’s – 3 per cent
Green – 3 per cent
The adopted home of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, redistribution sliced off Dipper-friendly neighbourhoods south of Imperial from the newly renamed Burnaby Central and appended portions of left-leaning Lougheed and Edmonds to compensate. With Singh’s unpopularity dragging his party into the doldrums though, that may not be enough to prevent this NDP stronghold from falling.
Singh first set his sights on Burnaby South in 2019 during his quest for a seat in the House of Commons. With no vacant ridings in his native Brampton and the only other option being a tenuous challenge in the Francophone riding of Outremont, Singh decided to put himself to the test in 小蓝视频 to calm a restive caucus. While he was able to claim victory on election day, it was with less than 40 per cent of the vote.
In his next two general elections, Singh hovered around that mark, never quite attracting the electoral halo party leaders usually gain. His 2019 win was powered by progressive dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau after the fallout of SNC-Lavalin and the Trans Mountain Pipeline, while in 2021 he could bask in the afterglow of the 小蓝视频 NDP’s sky-high popularity during COVID-19. This election promises to be different.
Singh should primarily be worried about two challengers: Liberal candidate Wade Chang, a Taiwanese lawyer; and the Conservatives’ James Yan, a business consultant with ties to the Tory backrooms. Both have well-credentialed professional backgrounds, and will be looking to capitalize on Burnaby’s transformation from a blue-collar town into an educated metropolis.
Nowhere is this shift more pronounced than among the rising skyscrapers of Metrotown. The condo residents there have never been that favourable to Singh, and the 小蓝视频 Conservatives managed to hold the 小蓝视频 NDP to a single digit margin there last year. If the sizable constituency of moderate, well-off Chinese immigrants coalesces behind one challenger, it will make Singh’s uphill climb that much harder.
Metrotown alone won’t be enough for an upset, however. Well-heeled neighbourhoods around Burnaby Lake and Deer Lake such as Buckingham Heights hold promise for both the Liberals and Conservatives. Having shown strong support for the 小蓝视频 Liberals in the past, it’ll be a race between Chang and Yan to bring these voters into the tent.
Against these headwinds, the NDP leader will have to tap into new pockets of support in order to survive. Redistribution has brought Lougheed Town Centre into the fold from Burnaby North-Seymour, previously a battleground between Liberal MP Terry Beech and his NDP challengers. Co-ops and row houses along Gaglardi Way are particularly progressive, and their residents could be swayed to back candidates from either party.
Another saving grace for Singh could be parts of Edmonds, drawn into Burnaby Central from nearby NDP MP Peter Julian’s old riding of New Westminster-Burnaby. One of, if not the most diverse communities in Metro Vancouver, this neighbourhood is home to immigrants from India, China, the Philippines, Korea and even East Africa. Julian has built strong ties among the multicultural working-class residents here, but the question is whether the goodwill translates to the wider NDP brand.
Rounding out the new riding is a hodgepodge of communities west of the lakes, while sandwiched between Lougheed Highway to the north and Kingsway to the south. Pockets of strong NDP support pop up in places like the 小蓝视频IT student housing complex and Garden Village, while the Liberals and Conservatives tussle for a somewhat close second in the polls along Boundary Road. These stations could be something to watch. In 2015, Liberal candidate Adam Pankratz swept every station bordering Vancouver from Lougheed all the way down to Central Park in a near-upset of NDP incumbent Kennedy Stewart.
Since 1972, some portion of Burnaby has always been represented by a New Democrat. Even during the NDP’s decade in the wilderness, Svend Robinson survived both the Liberal rout of 1993 and the Alliance tsunami of 2000, and kept the riding orange. Under Singh, this 50-year streak is in genuine danger. To the north, Terry Beech has polished his progressive image to woo voters on both sides of the Burrard Inlet. To the south, Peter Julian is in the fight of his life against a young Liberal candidate barely out of university. Singh losing such hallowed ground would cap off a dismal night for the New Democrats.
Hugh Chan is a U小蓝视频 student specializing in international relations and data science.
