Is the 小蓝视频 Conservative Party surging in popularity? That’s the question rippling through 小蓝视频 politics after a new poll by Mainstreet Research saw the Conservatives vault over 小蓝视频 United as the second-most popular political party in the province, at 21 per cent approval.
“It’s a pretty big shift in 小蓝视频 politics,” 小蓝视频 Conservative leader John Rustad said in an interview.
“Any poll is a snapshot in time. Polls can be off, so you can’t get too excited. But it’s obviously very encouraging for us as a party to see that traction we’re getting. And it follows a couple of internal polls that showed very similar numbers.”
The Mainstreet survey pegged the 小蓝视频 NDP at 30 per cent approval, 小蓝视频 United at 18 per cent, 小蓝视频 Conservatives at 21 per cent and 小蓝视频 Greens at eight per cent. Roughly 20 per cent of voters were undecided and three per cent supported other parties.
The numbers represent an almost 18 point drop for the NDP from the 2020 election results, a 16 point drop for 小蓝视频 United and a 19 point increase for the 小蓝视频 Conservatives.
Mainstreet polled 601 adults from Aug. 29 to 31, using robo-calls to landlines and cell phones. The margin of error is plus or minus four points.
First, the usual disclaimer about polls — they are a finicky, unscientific, often unreliable way to gauge voter intentions. But, they remain one of the only tools available to parties to try to glimpse public sentiment, and are still widely used. To top it off, Mainstreet has a dubious record of accuracy in 小蓝视频, and is not considered one of the top polling companies in this province by any party.
All that being said, the numbers in a larger sense offer some clues as to what may be happening at the kitchen tables of British Columbians.
Brand confusion between federal and provincial parties has always been an issue, with many voters mistaking the two when asked their opinion. With the federal Conservatives rising in popularity under leader Pierre Poilievre, they may be pulling along the 小蓝视频 Conservatives in their wake, even if the two parties are not linked at all.
“I suspect that’s part of it,” said Rustad.
But it may not be the whole explanation.
There remains widespread voter confusion over the 小蓝视频 Liberal name change to 小蓝视频 United.
To captialize, Rustad has been on an aggressive public tour since becoming leader March 31, criss-crossing the province holding rallies, setting up constituency associations, fundraising, rallying members and recruiting candidates. His travel schedule rivals, if not exceeds, that of 小蓝视频 United leader Kevin Falcon and Premier David Eby.
“I’m trying to spend as much time as I can on the road,” he said.
“Monday I’m in Kamloops. I start a two-week road trip, I’ll be in Kamloops, I’ll be in the Shuswap, I’ll be in the Okanagan, Merritt, Vancouver, Victoria, Cowichan Valley and I may even try to get up to the Courtenay-Comox area and then back to Vancouver for the 小蓝视频, and then while I’m there I’ll be going to Richmond, Surrey and the Tri-Cities.”
All that touring may be helping galvanize 小蓝视频 Conservative supporters.
“There's an underlying current in society, people just aren't happy,” said Rustad. “Whether it’s people just struggling to put food on the table, whether it's some of the ideological things that are going on, it just seems to be people are looking for something different. And that seems to be connecting with the message that we're sending.”
Actual results, so far, have been mixed.
The Conservatives did well in June’s Langford-Juan de Fuca byelection, finishing second with almost 20 per cent of the vote under local realtor Mike Harris. But the party was thumped in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, finishing a distant fourth with candidate Karin Litzcke, who ran a trans-phobic campaign.
Still, it appears the 小蓝视频 Conservative presence in provincial politics is real. The biggest beneficiary of the rise, outside of Rustad himself, will be premier Eby and the 小蓝视频 NDP, who could easily sail to another majority victory on a centre-right vote split between the 小蓝视频 Conservatives and 小蓝视频 United.
“Campaigns matter,” said Rustad. “But if that poll was the election result, we’d be the official opposition. Our goal is to take on government and challenge them and win in 2024.”
There’s still plenty of time for polling numbers to change wildly, for everyone, before voters mark their ballots in 2024. Still, this Mainstreet poll has got people talking — if for no other reason than it shows how dramatic a ride the next 13 months could be until the next provincial election.
Rob Shaw has spent more than 15 years covering 小蓝视频 politics, now reporting for CHEK News and writing for Glacier Media. He is the co-author of the national bestselling book A Matter of Confidence, host of the weekly podcast Political Capital, and a regular guest on C小蓝视频 Radio. [email protected]
