British Columbia’s vineyards could see the number of grape-growing days spike over the next 75 years, with climate change transforming conditions into something closer to Spain’s Rioja region or the Sonoma Valley in California, a new study has found.
Published this week in the peer-reviewed journal Cell Press, researchers from Italy’s University of Padova fed historical temperature and precipitation data into 29 climate models to project future changes to Canada’s major wine-growing regions—including those in Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and British Columbia.
Massimiliano Nicola Lippa, a Canadian PhD student who led the study from the prosecco wine region of Italy, said the study adds to a growing body of research suggesting Canada’s already “phenomenal quality” wines could see an explosion in diversity as temperatures warm.
“There’s a lot of latitude in Canada to move, which I think puts us in a really advantageous position compared to other places in Europe,” said Lippa.
Of all Canada’s growing regions, 小蓝视频 was found to be among the best placed to turn into a major player on the international wine market.
To measure change, Lippa and his colleagues used the climate classification system known as the Winkler index, which assumes grape vines don’t grow under 10 degrees Celsius.
Any day above that temperature counts toward a growing region’s score. The score is then added up over the northern hemisphere growing season—assumed to span April 1 to October 31—and the region is put into one of five grape-growing climate classes.
小蓝视频’s grape-growing regions are currently in the coldest class. In the study’s scenario showing the most warming, the province could be pushed from the coldest wine-producing climate to the scale’s third climate class.
That’s a significant shift, but one that’s expected to give 小蓝视频 more leeway to maintain a sustainable wine industry than other regions of Canada, where models suggest a shift to the hottest climate class by 2100.
“Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia—by the end of the century, they’re all pushing for the worst-case scenario,” said Lippa.
Rising heat can mean deeper cold snaps
The potential boon rising temperatures could bring to 小蓝视频’s wine industry comes with several caveats. Across Canada, the Italian study said that warmer, wetter climates could also come with more-frequent extreme storms, drought, wildfires, pest outbreaks and heatwaves.
In the warmer months, Lippa’s study found climbing temperatures could cause grapes to ripen faster, possibly altering alcohol content, flavour profiles and the colour of red wines by decreasing pigment production.
More rainfall late in the growing season could dilute the grapes’ sugar levels, increasing their risk of disease, the report said. Meanwhile, heat stress and drought could desiccate fruit and lead to “unfavourable compounds.”
Paolo Tarolli, a professor at the University of Padova who supervised the research, said there is a big push to come up with new technology to help wine producers manage the impacts of climate change. That includes monitoring sensors, smart irrigation systems and artificial intelligence.
In Europe, his research group has tested small-scale rainwater storages facilities that collect water and reuse it for emergency irrigation during severe droughts and heatwaves.
In 小蓝视频, Lippa warned the positive temperature trends could mask extreme swings in weather already challenging the province’s growers.
When a cold snap decimated crops in 小蓝视频’s Okanagan Valley last year, Bartier Bros. Vineyard and Winery was hit particularly hard. As temperatures plunged, the vineyard south of the town of Oliver lost its entire crop, and many of its vines were damaged without hope of returning.
This year, only about 55 to 60 per cent of the farm’s 85 acres will be productive.
“We were murdered,” said general manager Michael Bartier. “It is climate change. We ended up with a cold event that comes hand and hand with the heat.”
The vineyard has since uprooted swathes of damaged and destroyed semillon, merlot and syrah vines. After about two decades as a signature Okanagan varietal, Bartier said he knows of only one winery that is replanting Syrah grapes.
On his land, Bartier is looking to replace the dead vines with Chenin Blanc, a more cold-tolerant grape that he says produces a white wine with good structure, apple notes and “general deliciousness.”
The vineyard manager said he expects a general shift from red to white grapes, though some more temperature-tolerant red grapes like Cabernet Franc and Pinot Noir could also replace old plots of Merlot and Syrah.
“There will certainly be a shift in grape varieties,” said Bartier.
Bartier said some of the earliest benefits of a warming climate could be seen far from his winery, on the coast in places such as the Gulf Islands and Vancouver Island.
The farmer used to consult at a winery on Saturna Island, where Pinot Noir production was always stressful and everyone “held their breath” hoping for a few more weeks of warm weather.
An extended growing season could benefit such wineries, especially if the proximity to the ocean tempers extreme temperature swings, Bartier said.
“We might have more choices in the future. There’s certainly potential,” added Lippa.
“But producers need to be ready to change because inflexibility is going to be a really, really bad.”
Climate adaptation already underway
In the Okanagan Valley, many farmers are not waiting for the next spell of extreme weather. Producers in the region have moved to protect their crops since last year’s cold snap—deploying everything from blankets to LED lights to keep their vines warm.
For the first time last fall, Bartier Bros. buried many of their grape canes under several inches of soil, insulating them from extreme cold by up to five degrees Celsius. Bartier said the measure acts as an insurance policy.
“It’s been a relief. I was able to sleep all winter,” he said. “It won’t be a full crop, but it will be a significant crop.”
In the summer, vineyard manager Andrew Moon carefully monitors heat and water stress. If wildfire smoke taints the crop, workers move quickly—first to wash the vines and then at the crush pad to get the grape juice away from skins as fast as possible.
If there’s still smoke taint, the winery operators have the option of using a yeast derivative that binds to the atomic weight of smoke contaminants and precipitates them out of the wine.
Whatever climate change brings, Bartier and Lippa agree that 小蓝视频’s competitive advantage is going to come down to how wineries respond on the ground.
“I’m a farmer at heart. What I love about it is the cycles. The routines. You can count on them,” said Bartier.
“I think we got a little bit too comfortable.”
