MONTREAL 鈥� As the federal Liberals prepare to choose Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 successor, another Liberal leadership race is getting underway in Quebec this week.
The stakes are high for the Quebec Liberals, who have been in the political wilderness for years, with dismal polling among francophone voters. Candidates and observers say the party needs to broaden its appeal beyond Montreal if it鈥檚 to have any chance of forming government in the 2026 provincial election.
The campaign will unfold in the shadow of the race taking shape in Ottawa. And with Trudeau鈥檚 former Quebec lieutenant, Pablo Rodriguez, the likely front-runner, the Quebec Liberals will have to set themselves apart from a federal party in turmoil.
"Let鈥檚 face it," said political analyst Karim Boulos. "It鈥檚 not a great time to be a Liberal."
The Quebec Liberal Party is the province鈥檚 oldest political brand and the party that has spent the most time in power. But the Liberals suffered their worst defeat in decades in the 2018 election that swept Fran莽ois Legault and his conservative-leaning Coalition Avenir Qu茅bec into office. Then in 2022, they fared even worse.
They currently hold just 19 of 125 seats in the provincial legislature, mostly in and around Montreal. The concentration of Liberal voters in the city allowed them to hang on to official Opposition status.
鈥淭he Quebec Liberal Party is at a crossroads right now,鈥� said leadership candidate Charles Milliard, the former head of the federation of Quebec chambers of commerce. 鈥淚 think the party needs a breath of fresh air and a generational renewal.鈥�
The race, which officially begins Monday, could stir up much-needed excitement for the party. Rodriguez, who held a number of cabinet portfolios in Ottawa, announced his bid for the leadership in September. Former Montreal mayor Denis Coderre has also said he will run.
But attempts to attract another heavyweight, federal Innovation Minister Fran莽ois-Philippe Champagne, have so far not borne fruit, with Champagne considering a run for the federal leadership.
Milliard, 45, said the party needs to steer away from identity issues, including secularism and language, that have been a major feature of Legault鈥檚 time in office. He plans to run a campaign on 鈥渂read-and-butter鈥� matters like health care, education and public finances.
鈥淭he Quebec Liberal Party is the only political party in Quebec that can talk to all Quebecers,鈥� he said. 鈥淚n recent years, the CAQ and the Parti Qu茅b茅cois have demonstrated that they can be very divisive.鈥�
The Liberals have struggled to mount a compelling answer to the CAQ, which has positioned itself as the party of the economy, historically Liberal turf. As Legault has said, his promise not to hold a referendum also means the Liberals no longer have a 鈥渕onopoly of being against sovereignty.鈥�
The party, which hasn鈥檛 had a permanent leader since 2022, has so far not managed to capitalize on Legault鈥檚 recent decline in the polls. Instead, the sovereigntist Parti Qu茅b茅cois has been leading for more than a year.
Danielle Pilette, an associate professor at the Universit茅 du Qu茅bec 脿 Montr茅al, said the party needs to 鈥渞eestablish the Quebec Liberal trademark鈥� as the best option for managing the economy, particularly in the face of president-elect Donald Trump鈥檚 tariff threats.
Boulos said the federalist Quebec Liberals will also have to navigate the current nationalist sentiment in Quebec. 鈥淭he reality is, you wouldn't get elected today in Quebec if you say that you're a federalist,鈥� he said.
Milliard said he considers himself 鈥渘ationalist first,鈥� but said Quebec 鈥渃omes out a winner when Canada works well.鈥� The Liberal party, he said, is both nationalist and federalist.
Milliard is a political novice, and in Rodriguez he will be up against an experienced politician who was first elected to the House of Commons in 2004. Rodriguez, 57, has pitched himself as a unifier and is considered the candidate to beat. Still, he risks being seen as yet another Liberal from Montreal. 鈥淚s he capable of sparking a major movement in the regions?鈥� asked Pilette. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 unclear to me.鈥�
Rodriguez, who declined an interview request, will also have to contend with the baggage of nine years with a federal Liberal government that is now deeply unpopular. In November, rival candidate Fr茅d茅ric Beauchemin accused him of being part of a government 鈥渢hat spent like drunken sailors.鈥�
Beauchemin, apparently, has since had a change of heart. Two sources have told The Canadian Press he will announce Monday that he鈥檚 dropping his leadership bid and throwing his support behind Rodriguez. He was the only sitting member of the provincial legislature in the race.
Rodriguez and Milliard both have endorsements within the Liberal caucus, but Milliard has considerable support from the party鈥檚 youth wing. Among all the candidates, Rodriguez likely has "the best shot at becoming premier," said Boulos, a lecturer at Concordia University. But first he has to win over provincial Liberal members. "That's the challenge," he said.
Coderre, who was first to announce a leadership bid last June, has been plagued by headlines about how he owes roughly $400,000 to the federal and provincial tax agencies. In a December statement on Facebook, he said his tax problems would be resolved by January. He did not respond to interview requests from The Canadian Press last week.
Tax lawyer Marc B茅langer is also running for the leadership. To date, there are no women in the race, which ends in June with the election of a new leader.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 12, 2025.
鈥� With files from St茅phane Blais
Maura Forrest, The Canadian Press
