The past week has seen no shortage of musings on how the province should respond to the Trump administration’s impending tariffs. From bourbon boycotts to taxing truckers bound for Alaska, the suggestion box is filling, but the broader question remains: what is 小蓝视频’s export strategy under the Trump regime?
While the urge to find new markets in the face of instability with our largest trading partner is understandable, it is important to step back and consider global economic trends beyond the single term of a U.S. presidency before declaring which industries should be anointed with rescuing the economy.
A knee-jerk reaction to tariffs may not set 小蓝视频 up for future economic success. It may in fact leave 小蓝视频 worse off if the end result is stranded assets, misaligned subsidies and environmental liabilities left to the taxpayer to clean up.
While it may be tempting to look at U.S. President Donald Trump's recent executive orders on energy and climate and extrapolate that this is where the world is headed, the truth is that the global economy is on a starkly different path. Our other largest trading partners, Europe and China, are all in on the clean energy transition, with the latter now electric vehicle sales of around 50 per cent, a trend the International Energy Agency projects will displace six million barrels of oil a day in just five years. For context, this is six times the daily of the Trans Mountain pipeline that carries oil from Alberta to refineries in 小蓝视频 and Washington state.
The world now invests almost twice as much in clean energy as it does in fossil fuels. Global energy investment is set to exceed US$3 trillion for the first time in 2024, with US$2 trillion going to clean energy technologies and infrastructure. Investment in clean energy has accelerated since 2020, and spending on renewable power, grids and storage is now higher than total spending on oil, gas and coal.
Clean energy momentum remains strong enough to bring a in demand for coal, natural gas, and oil by 2030. In other words, continued growth in global energy demand post-2030 can be met solely with clean energy.
Adding uncertainty to 小蓝视频’s export calculus is an increase of nearly 50 per cent in global LNG export capacity by 2030, led by Qatar and the U.S., which just removed its pause on the approval of new LNG export terminals. This means that new 小蓝视频 LNG projects would come onstream into a crowded market with depressed prices.
So what does this mean for 小蓝视频?
While there may some be additional non-U.S. export opportunities for fossil fuels, for the reasons stated above, these are limited in quantity and time. A more promising bet that provides longer-term benefits and stability is to pivot our exports in a way that aligns with sectors seeing and projecting the most growth.
The opportunities are already in front of us. Using mining as one example, 小蓝视频 currently hosts seven near-term mines or mine extension projects that will reach their final investment decisions in the next 18 months. As the Mining Association of British Columbia puts it, “Critical minerals are essential building blocks for clean technologies like solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles.”
These projects represent more than $4 billion in capital expenditures, 6,400 new construction and operating jobs, and an economic impact topping $10 billion. Similar stories abound in renewable power, forest products and the province’s cleantech industries.
Fortunately, Premier David Eby’s recent mandate letters to his Cabinet identify key steps to build an export-focused clean economy.
His government has committed to build projects faster, find new global markets for 小蓝视频 products, incent equity stakes for Indigenous Nations, generate more electricity, secure land for industrial use and review government programs to meet these objectives.
There is more, however, that the government can do.
It starts with a focus on understanding and building on our province's competitive advantages. First, 小蓝视频 is Canada’s gateway to the Asian and Western U.S. markets. As these regions increasingly prioritize low-carbon goods and services, 小蓝视频 should be making investments to secure industrial lands and supportive infrastructure (including clean electricity) needed to support both their production and export.
Second, focusing on innovation in growing clean sectors is one way to improve productivity and create high-paying, high-skilled jobs. Finally at a time of fiscal prudence, 小蓝视频 should look at fostering interprovincial trade and breaking down barriers to grow domestic markets while leveraging a hugely underused tool: the government’s own procurement dollars.
There’s nothing like a crisis to catalyze change. At the end of the next four years, 小蓝视频’s economy needs to be positioned for the future, not rewired to conform to 1970s energy policy. While we cannot predict exactly how much one industry will grow compared to another, there are unmistakable global trends that—independent of where Trump takes the U.S.—provide some certainty in an uncertain future. A bumpier road is better than a dead end.
Mark Zacharias is the executive director at Clean Energy Canada, a think tank at Simon Fraser University’s Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue.
